THE AGGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE INVESTOR 积极谨慎的投资者 下载 pdf 2025 网盘 epub 在线 mobi 免费

This no-holds-barred presentation of one of the most successful investment strategies of all time -- value investing in distressed securities/companie -- shows you how to analyze and evaluate stocks just like controlling owners. Based on the assumption that stock price rarely reflects real value, authors Whitman and Shubik use numerous case studies to present risk-minimizing methods that also provide high rewards. Still relevant today, this classic work includes a new introduction discussing the dramatic changes that have taken place in the value investing world since its first publication in 1979.

作者简介:Martin J. Whitman (New York, NY) is chairman, chief executive officer, and co-chief investment officer of Third Avenue Management LLC, and also manages the Third Avenue Value Fund. Mr. Whitman is chairman and CEO of M.J. Whitman, Inc., a New York-based full-service broker-dealer and serves as CEO of Danielson Holding Corporation, a Chicago-based insurance holding and trust company.

Mr. Whitman received a bachelor of science from the School of Management and a master's degree in economics from the New School for Social Research. He is a chartered financial analyst.

Foreword

Preface

Section One: The Approach

1 An Overview

2 The Financial-Integrity Approach to Equity Investing

Section Two: The Uses and Limitations of Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis

3 The Significance of Market Performance

4 Modern Capital Theory

5 Risk and Uncertainty

Section Three: Disclosures and Information

6 Following the Paper Trail

7 Financial Accounting

8 Generally Accepted Accounting Principles

Section Four: The Financial and Investment Environment

9 Tax Shelter (TS), Other People’s Money (OPM), Accounting Fudge Factor (AFF) nd Something off the Top (SOTT)

10 Securities Analysis and Securities Markets

11 Finance and Business

Section Five: Tools of Securities Analysis

12 Net Asset Values

13 Earnings

14 Roles of Cash Dividends in Securities Analysis and Portfolio Management

15 Shareholder Distributions, Primarily from the Company Point of View

16 Losses and Loss Companies

17 A Short Primer on Asset-Conversion Investing: Prearbitrage and Postarbitrage

Section Six: Appendixes—Case Studies

Introduction to Appendixes I and II

I The Use of Creative Finance to Benefit Controlling Stockholders—Schaefer orporation

II Creative Finance Applied to a Corporate Takeover—Leasco Data Processing Company

III A Guide to SEC Corporate Filings—What They Are/What They Tell You (Reprinted Courtesy of Disclosure Incorporated)

IV Examples of Variables Using the Financial-Integrity Approach—Pro and Con

Index

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我们在以下两方面与格雷厄姆和多德不同。首先，我们认为，在《1964年证券法修正案》获得通过以后的岁月里，信息披露工作做得越来越好，而现在是好上加好，以至于细心的投资者能在越来越多的场合进行充分的分析，足以使他们在不再把投资严格局限于别人普遍认为是高质量的股票的同时还能获得适当的收益。

其次，我们的方法不同于格雷厄姆和多德的方法，因为他们的忠告似乎是针对那些对一般市场水平和每股收益等因素具有非常重要意义的环境做出反应的外部投资者的，而我们的方法则是针对积极投资者和那些希望像积极投资者那样思考问题的外部投资者的。

我们的观点是，只有个别外部投资者应该为短期市场表现倾其所有。首先，对于许多外部投资者来说，投资业绩的位置应该居于其他因素之后，如通利息和股利来实现创造有适度保证且稳定的现金收入的目标。其次，对于那些采纳账务健全法的投资者来说，即使曾经重视过短期因素，但也是偶尔为之。按照该方法，证券显得颇有吸引力的时间，常常是不确定的；财务健全法的四大基本要素绝不会提供何时会出现想像的短期市场表现。最后，部分关于现代资本理论的研究表明，如果把“战胜市场”定义为获得按风险调整后的现金总回报高于市场水平，那么，那些试图不断战胜市场的投资者通常做不到这一点。

经营企业的目的就在于通过营运活动来赚取利润，而营运结果应反映在连续的损益账户中。除了投资信托公司以外，企业试图通过再融资、重组、收购、处置或者创造实现或未实现资本得得等活动来创造财富，就是偏离正道。

美国严格的审计标准其价值表现之一，就是在过去的25年里，至少大多数投机泡沫不是出现在不受公认会计准则约束的行业或证券发行，就是发生在公认会计准则对于企业或股票评估不起多大作用的行业或证券发行。......因此，最近的投机泡沫大多出现在风险事业、新发明和新发现领域，以及新产业和像人寿保险这样的行业。

Precision and visibility, even if they do not reflect realization values, deserve a special significance, because they appear to (and in a sense do) reduce uncertainties. An absence of precision and measurability usually, and understandably, detracts from perceptions of value.

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"The Aggressive Conservative Investor will never go out of date. Regulation, disclosure, and other things may change, but the general approach and mindset to successful investing are timeless. Read this book and you will learn the rudiments of 'safe and cheap' investing. An essential read for every amateur and professional investor."

--Stan Garstka, Deputy Dean & Professor in the Practice of Faculty & Management, Yale School of Management "Security analysis toward both better odds and higher long-term payoff: A readable, authoritative guide."

--Professor Bill Baumol, New York University "In reading this book, one is struck by the simplicity of the ideas and the dependence of the investor on his own understandings of reality as opposed to the myths on the street. The updated version of this 1979 classic incorporates all the modern financial engineering that has occurred as a product of the late 20th century, and the new methodologies refine your abilities to measure risk but don't change the fundamentals of value. The updated version of The Aggressive Conservative Investor is very much a value-added proposition."

--Sam Zell, Chairman, Equity Group Investment LLC "I concur with those people who regard Marty Whitman as the 'Dean of Value Investing.' This book is a must-read for everyone interested in understanding the art of investing."

--Melvin T. Stith, Dean, Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University This no-holds-barred presentation of one of the most successful investment strategies of all time -- value investing in distressed securities/companie -- shows you how to analyze and evaluate stocks just like controlling owners. Based on the assumption that stock price rarely reflects real value, authors Whitman and Shubik use numerous case studies to present risk-minimizing methods that also provide high rewards. Still relevant today, this classic work includes a new introduction discussing the dramatic changes that have taken place in the value investing world since its first publication in 1979.